The Atlanta Braves roll into Citi Field tonight sitting at 45-24, one of the best records in baseball, while the hometown New York Mets are a pedestrian 31-38 and badly need a win to keep any postseason conversation alive. Vegas has the Mets as a slight favorite at -115 on the home side, which tells you the books think the Citi Field crowd and whoever they're running out there tonight can keep it close — over/under is 8.5, so sharps are expecting some offense.

The heart of the Atlanta order has been absolutely raking lately, so if the Mets starter doesn't get into his stuff early and keep the barrel count down, the manager could find himself going to the pen way too soon. My bold call: Braves bullpen holds a late lead and the Mets' anemic OBP bottom of the lineup makes it a quiet night at the dish — Atlanta wins by two and reminds everyone why they're the class of the division.